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The Central Economic Work Conference held not long ago，In-depth analysis of the current economic situation，Comprehensive deployment of economic work in 2019，proposed "consolidation、Enhancement、Promote、The eight-character policy of "smooth flow"，Strengthen our confidence、Deepen understanding，Government of economic work in 2019。2019 is the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China，It is also a crucial year for building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way，The economic work task is very heavy。We must follow the requirements and deployment of the central government，Comprehensive analysis of profound changes in the internal and external environment，New connotation of scientifically grasping important strategic opportunities，Cope with various risks and challenges，Accelerate the pace of high-quality economic development in our country，Laying a decisive foundation for the completion of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way。

Our country’s current economic situation is basically stable

2018，Facing the severe international situation and the arduous domestic reform and development tasks，We follow the general requirements for high-quality development、Focus on deepening supply-side structural reform，Fight the three tough battles，Coordinate the promotion of stable growth、Promote reform、Adjust structure、Benefiting people’s livelihood、Various risk prevention tasks，The overall operation of the national economy is stable、Stability and progress。

First, the economy is basically maintained within a reasonable range。First three quarters of 2018，my country’s GDP increased by 6% year-on-year.7%。January to November 2018，Industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.3%。Price trend is moderate and moderate，Consumer Price Rise 2.1%。Prices in the production field are generally stable，The scissor difference between industrial prices and consumer prices narrowed。The scale of employment continues to expand，By the end of November 2018，12.93 million new urban jobs nationwide，Complete the full-year goal ahead of schedule。The national urban surveyed unemployment rate is stable but declining，Maintained at around 5%。Balance of international payments is basically balanced，The impact of Sino-US trade friction on exports and foreign investment has not yet appeared。

Second, the economic structure continues to be optimized。The proportion of the tertiary industry continues to increase，The driving effect on economic growth continues to increase。First three quarters of 2018，The proportion dafabet online sports betting appof the added value of the three industries in GDP is 6 respectively.5%、40.4% and 53.1%，The proportion of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry increased by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points。Consumption’s driving role in my country’s economic growth has further strengthened，The demand structure continues to improve。Although infrastructure investment has dropped significantly，But manufacturing、Real Estate、Private investment is stable，Strong demand for service consumption，First three quarters of 2018，The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 78.0%，14 higher than the same period in 2017.0 percentage points。Resident income growth is in sync with economic growth，The income gap between urban and rural residents has narrowed，First three quarters of 2018，The national per capita disposable income actually increased by 6% year-on-year.6%，Basically in sync with economic growth。

Third, new growth momentum has improved。High-tech industry、New energy vehicles、The growth rate dafabet online sports betting appof the added value of strategic emerging industries is significantly higher than that of the entire above-scale industries。New energy vehicles、Optical fiber、The output of new products such as smart TVs maintains rapid growth。Strategic emerging service industries in the service industry、The operating income of high-tech service industries is faster than that of all service industries above designated size。Elderly care related to residents’ consumption upgrade、Medical、Travel and leisure、Improving the supply level of culture and entertainment and other service industries。Consultation、Logistics、Message、The business service industry is developing rapidly，Information transmission、The software and information technology service industry has good momentum。

Fourth, economic benefits and quality have improved。Capacity utilization remains stable。First three quarters of 2018，The national industrial capacity utilization rate is 76.6%，Same as the same period in 2017。Industrial enterprises above designated size achieved year-on-year profit growth of 14.7%，Much higher than the growth rate of corporate sales revenue。Leverage ratio reduced。End of November 2018，The asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size is 56.8%，YoY decrease 0.4 percentage points。Solid progress in energy saving and consumption reduction，Energy consumption structure continues to be optimized，First three quarters of 2018，National energy consumption increased by 3% year-on-year.4%，Natural gas、Water and electricity、Nuclear power、The proportion of clean energy consumption such as wind power in total energy consumption increased by 1 compared with the same period in 2017.3 percentage points，Energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 3 year-on-year.1%。

What needs to be noted is，While the economy is running smoothly，Our country has also seen increasing difficulties for private enterprises、Problems such as too rapid decline in infrastructure investment，The international economic dafabet online sports betting appenvironment is relatively severe，Uncertainty in Sino-US economic and trade frictions has increased significantly，Economic performance is stable with changes、Changes come with worries。These issues and challenges deserve our great attention。

my country’s macroeconomic control policy orientation in 2019

In view of the contradictions and problems existing in our country’s economy，The Central Economic Work Conference proposed my country’s economic development goals for 2019、Policies and main tasks。We must adhere to the general tone of our work of seeking progress while maintaining stability，Adhere to supply-side structural reform as the main line，Insist on deepening market-oriented reform、Expanding high-level opening up，Focus on stimulating the vitality of micro entities，Innovate and improve macro-control，Coordinate the promotion of stable growth、Promote reform、Adjust structure、Benefiting people’s livelihood、Risk prevention work，Further stabilizing dafabet online betting websiteemployment、Stabilizing Finance、Stabilizing foreign trade、Stabilizing foreign investment、Stable investment、Stable expectations，Boost market confidence，Keep the economy operating within a reasonable range。

First，Macroeconomic policies must strengthen countercyclical adjustments。Continue to implement proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy，Timely pre-adjustment and fine-tuning，Stabilize aggregate demand。Proactive fiscal policy must be intensified to improve efficiency，Implement larger-scale tax and fee reductions，Significantly increase the scale of local government special bonds。Prudent monetary policy should be moderately tight，Maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity。Improving the monetary policy transmission mechanism，Increase the proportion of direct financing，Solve the problem of difficult and expensive financing for private enterprises and small and micro enterprises。Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level，Strengthen capital controls，Guarantee the independence of our country’s monetary policy。

Second，Structural policies should strengthen the construction of institutions and mechanisms。Insist on seeking motivation from reform，Deepening state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises、Finance, Taxation and Finance、Land、Market access、Reforms in social management and other fields，Strengthening the fundamental status of competition policy，Create an institutional environment for fair competition，Encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to accelerate their growth。Promoting supply-side structural reform is the main starting point of structural policies，In 2019, we must "consolidate、Enhancement、Promote、Work hard on the eight words "smooth"。We must consolidate the results of "three cuts, one reduction and one supplement"，Promote the clearance of more overcapacity industries，Reduce various business costs for the whole society，Increase efforts to make up for shortcomings in dafabet online sports betting appinfrastructure and other fields。To enhance the vitality of micro-subjects，Leverage the subjective initiative of enterprises and entrepreneurs，Establish fair, open and transparent market rules and a legalized business environment，Promote positive incentives and survival of the fittest。To improve the level of the industrial chain，Use technological innovation and economies of scale to form new competitive advantages，Cultivation and development of new industrial clusters。We must smooth the national economic cycle，Formation of domestic market and production entities、Economic growth and employment expansion、Virtuous cycle of finance and real economy。

Third，Social policies must strengthen the function of providing safety net。We must put stabilizing employment in a prominent position，Focus on solving problems for college graduates、Migrant workers、Employment of veterans and other groups。We must deepen the reform of the social security system，Promote the national co-ordination of pension insurance on the basis of accelerating provincial-level co-ordination。To build a long-term mechanism for the healthy development of the real estate market，Insist that houses are for living in、Not a positioning for speculation，Adopt policies based on the city、Classification guidance，Consolidate the main responsibility of the city government，Improving the housing market system and housing security system。

　Fourth，Prevent and resolve major risks。We must adhere to the basic idea of ​​structural deleveraging，Prevent abnormal fluctuations and resonance in financial markets，Properly handle local government debt risks，Be firm、Controllable、Orderly、Moderate。We must deepen financial and taxation reforms to resolve financial risks。Develop private banks and community banks，Promote city commercial banks、Rural Commercial Bank、The business of rural credit cooperatives gradually returns to its roots。We must improve financial infrastructure，Strengthen supervision and service capabilities。Through deepening reforms，Create a norm、Transparent、Open、energetic、Resilient capital markets，Improving the quality of listed companies，Improving the trading system。We must improve the local tax system，Regulate government debt financing mechanism。

Overall，The external environment faced by my country’s economic development in 2019 is more complex and severe than in 2018，Our prediction，Investment growth rate will pick up，Consumption is stable with slight decrease，Export growth rate will slow down，Price is generally stable，The scissor difference between the prices of industrial products and consumer goods narrows，General economic growth will slow down。Meanwhile，The effect of supply-side structural reform on stabilizing the economy will continue to appear，Signals that encourage the development of private enterprises and deepen reform and opening up are conducive to stabilizing the confidence of enterprises，Stabilize dafabet online betting websiteemployment、Stabilizing Finance、Stabilizing foreign trade、Stabilizing foreign investment、Stable investment、Policies to stabilize expectations will gradually take effect。It is recommended to set the economic growth target for 2019 at more than 6%，Price control at around 3%。(Author: Zhu Baoliang, Chief Economist of the National Information Center)

  Source:Economic Daily